Welfare spending is heading towards £406 billion by 2030-31, with more than a quarter of working-age adults receiving support. Spending on that scale is neither sustainable nor economically responsible and the country faces difficult choices about how to bring it under control. Those choices require political leadership and must be made honestly, with the public told the truth about the trade-offs involved and unintended consequences for future generations if welfare spending is left unaddressed.

The UK’s welfare system no longer consistently reflects the expectation that work should pay, that contribution is recognised, and that support reaches those who need it most. That expectation is widely shared with More in Common polling for Prosper UK which found that seven in ten people think someone in full-time work should always receive more than someone on benefits, a view held by a majority of voters from every main party.

Many of the Labour Government’s reforms have stalled, leaving the deeper problems unaddressed. This provides an opportunity for the centre-right to build a welfare system that puts work first and is fair across the generations.

Prosper UK was founded on the principle that hard work and success should be rewarded, and that there should be real help for those who genuinely need it. We believe growth is the overriding priority, and that a country does best when people can get on through their own effort and no one who could contribute is left behind. A strong country is one where every citizen feels they have a stake in its success, and that means a welfare system fair in both directions – for those paying in and those taking out.

These proposals are grounded in evidence from those who design welfare policy and those who deliver it on the ground. We also engaged a wider group of experts in shaping them.

Reforming the triple lock would put the state pension on a sustainable footing. The saving is small at first, because the triple lock barely outpaces earnings over the next few years, but it grows steadily over time. The Institute for Fiscal Studies estimates that holding the pension at its current share of median earnings would save £20.6 billion a year by 2050 in today’s terms. The poorest pensioners would remain protected through Pension Credit, while the saving frees resources for other national priorities.

With almost a million young people currently not in employment, education or training, creating opportunities for younger generations is essential. Our proposals would open up more routes into work for them, expanding apprenticeships and training for 16-24-year-olds so that they can enter the workforce better equipped with the skills required in a changing economy.

Together, these reforms would save around £8.5 billion a year by the end of the decade, rising significantly thereafter.